How to run a baby due date pool

A due date pool is the simplest version of a baby pool: everyone guesses the day the baby arrives. It works because almost nobody guesses right — only about 4% of babies are born on their due date.

Why the due date is a good thing to guess

A due date is an estimate, not an appointment. Only about 4 in 100 babies arrive on the exact date, and most come within about two weeks either side. That spread is what makes the game work: everyone has a plausible guess, and nobody has an edge.

Scoring

Use a scale everyone can check:

• 100 points for the exact date
• minus 5 points for each day off, in either direction
• Add birth time (100 points, minus 1 per 10 minutes off) if you expect ties

Guessing "one week late" and "one week early" should score the same. Any system that favors going late annoys people.

Keep the guesses hidden

If guests can see earlier guesses, the later ones cluster around them and the game gets boring. On paper, use a sealed box. Online, use a tool that hides everything until the reveal.

Timing

Open the pool around 4 to 6 weeks before the due date. Earlier and people forget they entered; much later and you miss anyone who arrives early. Close guesses on the due date itself, or when labor starts.

Adding more categories

A date-only pool often ends in a tie. Adding weight and time usually separates the top guesses, and adding the name turns it into a longer game, since parents often keep the name secret until the birth.

Common questions

How does a due date pool work?

Each guest picks a date (and optionally a time and weight). Guesses stay hidden until the baby is born, then the guest closest to the actual birth date wins. Scoring is usually 100 points minus 5 for each day off.

What percentage of babies are born on their due date?

Roughly 4%. Most babies arrive within a week or two either side, which is what makes a due date pool a real guessing game rather than a coin flip.

Can you add other categories to a due date pool?

Yes. Birth time, weight, sex, and the baby name are common additions. Scoring each category separately and adding them up keeps ties rare.